Nordea September Outlook: Swedish Economy Normalised With Growth Driven by Stronger Exports and Domestic Demand
Nordea's September 2026 Economic Outlook finds Sweden's economy normalised — exports stronger, domestic demand firming, unemployment declining — and the Riksbank preparing to raise rates.
According to Nordea's Economic Outlook: Resilience in Motion (September 2, 2026), the Swedish economy has normalised, with growth driven by a combination of stronger exports and firming domestic demand. Nordea's Group Chief Economist Helge Pedersen's assessment describes a Nordic economic environment that is demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of geopolitical conflict, elevated energy prices, and trade tensions — and identifies Sweden as one of the Nordic economies most successfully converting this resilience into genuine economic recovery.
Resource utilisation is increasing in Sweden as the economic recovery broadens and demand for both labour and production capacity strengthens. Unemployment is declining — tracking the gradual improvement that Swedbank had forecast earlier in the year, toward the 7.7% level by end-2027 — supporting household income growth and consumer confidence recovery. The Swedish labour market's improvement is particularly significant because it converts the improving macro picture into a consumer spending recovery that creates self-reinforcing demand dynamics.
Nordea forecasts that Swedish inflation could rise to around 2% next year, representing a normalisation from the current below-target readings. This projected inflation increase is itself a signal of recovery health: it reflects improving domestic demand, tightening labour markets, and the gradual fade of the temporary VAT reductions that have been suppressing headline inflation. The Riksbank is expected to raise its policy rate in response — consistent with Swedbank's earlier baseline of a November 2026 hike to 2.00% — as Sweden's central bank begins to normalise policy from the supportive stance of the past two years.
Sweden's exports have strengthened in Q3 2026, supported by the improving German economic environment — Germany is Sweden's largest export market — and by continued strong demand for Swedish engineering, defence equipment, and digital services globally. The NATO-related defence procurement and the global AI investment cycle are both providing structural demand tailwinds for Swedish industrial exporters that go beyond the cyclical recovery.
For businesses targeting Sweden as a customer market, Nordea's September 2026 assessment paints the most positive picture of Swedish demand conditions seen in several years. A normalised economy with declining unemployment, improving exports, rising resource utilisation, and a central bank preparing to begin tightening — all of these signals point toward a market where investment, procurement, and consumer spending are in a sustained upward trajectory. The primary risk to this positive picture remains a significant escalation of the Middle East conflict that drives energy prices sharply higher and forces the Riksbank into more aggressive tightening than currently planned.
