BBVA Research's September China update marks a modest downward revision to 2026 GDP — to 4.3% from 4.5% — as property contraction proves stickier than expected. But the PBoC RRR cut and high-tech momentum provide a floor.
The People's Bank of China cut its reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 percentage points in September — the first RRR cut since 2025, signalling that policymakers are providing incremental support as growth momentum moderates.
China's August industrial and retail data for September release confirm the two-speed economy is deepening: high-tech output at +15%, real estate investment at -18%, and consumer services outpacing goods for a fourth consecutive year.
The Kiel Institute's autumn 2026 World Economy Outlook features the global AI boom fuelling growth — and Japan is identified as one of the primary beneficiaries through its semiconductor equipment and robotics export position.
Vanguard's September Japan update confirms the BoJ rate hike to 1.25% as the base case, assesses the wage-price dynamic as durable, and identifies AI export strength as the key growth positive for H2 2026.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September — delivering the year-end hike that Vanguard and Daiwa had forecast. The wage-price dynamic is sufficiently durable, and inflation risks are to the upside.
Statistics Canada's industry-level GDP data for September 2026 confirms the H2 recovery — energy sector and technology services leading, manufacturing stabilising, residential construction still weak.
TD Economics' September quarterly forecast for Canada upgrades 2026 GDP to 1.0% from June's 0.7% — the H2 recovery is running ahead of forecast, with Alberta and the energy sector leading and Ontario gradually stabilising.
The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% in September — data confirms the broadening recovery is on track, but new US tariffs and Strait of Hormuz risks make Governing Council cautious about declaring victory.
US Bank's September Monthly Outlook finds the US economy on firm footing heading into Q4 — AI investment still dominant, the labour market loosening gradually, and energy independence providing continued protection from the Middle East shock.
The Fed's September Beige Book finds US economic activity continuing to expand at a modest-to-moderate pace across most districts — AI investment remains the standout demand driver, while energy-sensitive sectors face mixed conditions.
The BEA's Q2 third estimate revised US GDP growth upward to 1.7% — stronger than both the advance and second estimates — with consumer spending and business investment both revised higher.
