NBB September Economic Review: Belgian Chemical Sector Shows Early Recovery Signs as Energy Prices Moderate
The NBB's September Economic Review documents Belgian economic conditions three months after the June capacity crisis low — with some signs of chemical sector recovery as European gas prices moderate, but the recovery is fragile.
According to the National Bank of Belgium's Economic Review for September 2026, Belgium's economy is showing early recovery signals as the most acute phase of the Strait of Hormuz energy shock moderates and European natural gas prices decline from their Q2 peak levels. The September Review documents a tentative but real improvement in chemical sector capacity utilisation at the Antwerp petrochemical cluster, following the 46-year utilisation low recorded in the NBB's June Macroeconomic Projections data.
The improvement in European natural gas prices through Q3 2026 — driven by a combination of emergency LNG import expansion, reduced Asian demand competition for LNG cargoes, and partial recovery of pipeline supply routes — has materially improved the economics of operating Antwerp's ethylene crackers, ammonia synthesis facilities, and basic chemical production lines. Capacity utilisation in basic chemical production has recovered from its June low, though it remains well below the long-term average and the recovery is still in its early and fragile phase. Any re-escalation of the Middle East conflict that pushed natural gas prices back toward June peak levels would halt or reverse this tentative recovery.
Belgium's pharmaceutical sector continues to outperform in September, with US tariff exemptions maintaining the export economics that are sustaining production at UCB, Janssen, and other major Belgian pharmaceutical manufacturers. The pharmaceutical sector's resilience is providing a crucial employment and revenue anchor for the Belgian economy during a period when the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors are still well below normal operating levels.
Consumer conditions in Belgium have remained subdued through Q3 2026. The automatic wage indexation mechanism has protected household nominal incomes against the worst of the energy price inflation, but the household saving rate has remained elevated at approximately 12% of disposable income, as uncertainty about energy bills and the economic outlook has maintained precautionary saving behaviour. Consumer spending growth is expected to recover gradually through Q4 2026 and into 2027 as energy prices normalise further and household confidence improves.
The construction sector and residential investment remain weak, with building permits in a declining trend that reflects the legacy of reduced household confidence and elevated borrowing costs from the H1 2026 energy shock period. The recovery in construction activity will lag the broader economic recovery by the typical 6-12 months of permit-to-construction lead time. For businesses with Belgian customers across the chemical, pharmaceutical, logistics, and consumer sectors, the NBB September Review describes an economy that has passed its worst point and is on a gradual recovery trajectory — but where the normalisation to pre-shock operating levels will take well into 2027.
