PUBLISHED July 28, 2026
According to “Belgium’s Economic Outlook for 2025-2030”, published by the Federal Planning Bureau in June 2026, GDP growth is expected to reach only 0.7 percent this year as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, with economic growth gradually strengthening in the years that follow — a modest starting point for a five-year outlook otherwise framed around steady, if unspectacular, expansion. The bureau’s economists were explicit that this modest 2026 starting point should be read as a temporary dip within a longer, more encouraging trajectory rather than as representative of Belgium’s underlying medium-term growth potential.
Inflation Stays Elevated Before Easing
Inflation is projected to remain high in 2026, at 3.4 percent, before easing progressively to 1.7 percent by the end of the projection period — with household purchasing power expected to recover only from 2027 onward, after an initial temporary decline tied to the current energy-price environment. This gradual, multi-year disinflation path, rather than a rapid return to target, reflects the bureau’s assumption that Belgium’s inflation dynamics will take several years to fully normalise following the current geopolitically-driven energy shock, even as the most acute phase of price pressure eases within the first year or two of the projection window.
Employment Growth Is the Genuine Bright Spot
Employment is set to expand, with around 20,000 additional jobs created in 2026 and nearly 230,000 created over the 2027–2031 period, according to the bureau — a substantial cumulative gain that stands out as the most consistently positive element of the entire forecast. This scale of cumulative job creation, spread across a Belgian labour market of roughly five million workers, represents a genuinely meaningful expansion by historical standards, and the bureau’s own commentary frames it as the clearest evidence that Belgium’s underlying economic fundamentals remain considerably sounder than the more modest headline GDP growth figures alone might suggest.
Belgian growth is projected to fluctuate between 0.9 percent and 1.4 percent across the remainder of the projection window, according to the bureau, with global economic growth currently slowed by US trade policy but expected to pick up slightly after 2026. This range, while modest by the standards of faster-growing emerging economies, is broadly consistent with what economists would consider a mature, developed European economy’s sustainable long-run growth rate, absent any exceptional cyclical tailwind or structural reform-driven acceleration.
Belgian growth is projected to fluctuate between 0.9 percent and 1.4 percent across the remainder of the projection window, according to the bureau, with global economic growth currently slowed by US trade policy but expected to pick up slightly after 2026. This range, while modest by the standards of faster-growing emerging economies, is broadly consistent with what economists would consider a mature, developed European economy’s sustainable long-run growth rate, absent any exceptional cyclical tailwind or structural reform-driven acceleration.
Inflation is anticipated to fall below 2 percent over the medium term, though the bureau notes it will rise temporarily in 2027 following the implementation of the new European emissions trading system — an EU-level policy change with direct, quantifiable domestic consequences for Belgian consumers. This specific, dated inflationary bump tied to a known, scheduled EU policy change is a rare example within the broader forecast of a genuinely predictable, rather than geopolitically contingent, driver of future price movements — giving Belgian policymakers unusually clear advance notice to prepare mitigating measures if desired.
Individuals aged 65 and over account for more than a third of the projected employment increase, according to the bureau — though this age group falls outside the standard employment rate indicator for 20-to-64-year-olds, which is nonetheless projected to rise from 72.3 percent in 2024 to 74.7 percent in 2030. This significant contribution from older workers reflects both Belgium’s ongoing pension reform efforts, which have progressively raised the effective retirement age, and a broader demographic trend of older workers remaining economically active for longer than previous generations, a pattern the bureau expects to continue strengthening across the projection period.
The government deficit is projected to reach 5.4 percent of GDP in 2025, remaining broadly stable until 2028 before increasing further, according to the bureau’s projections — a trajectory that, combined with otherwise encouraging employment figures, leaves Belgian policymakers facing the classic dilemma of a country that is growing and creating jobs, while its public finances continue moving in the wrong direction regardless. The bureau’s own concluding remarks note that absent a meaningful shift in fiscal policy direction, this deficit trajectory will continue placing Belgium under close scrutiny from European fiscal governance bodies well before the end of the current projection window in 2030.
Inflation is anticipated to fall below 2 percent over the medium term, though the bureau notes it will rise temporarily in 2027 following the implementation of the new European emissions trading system — an EU-level policy change with direct, quantifiable domestic consequences for Belgian consumers. This specific, dated inflationary bump tied to a known, scheduled EU policy change is a rare example within the broader forecast of a genuinely predictable, rather than geopolitically contingent, driver of future price movements — giving Belgian policymakers unusually clear advance notice to prepare mitigating measures if desired.
Individuals aged 65 and over account for more than a third of the projected employment increase, according to the bureau — though this age group falls outside the standard employment rate indicator for 20-to-64-year-olds, which is nonetheless projected to rise from 72.3 percent in 2024 to 74.7 percent in 2030. This significant contribution from older workers reflects both Belgium’s ongoing pension reform efforts, which have progressively raised the effective retirement age, and a broader demographic trend of older workers remaining economically active for longer than previous generations, a pattern the bureau expects to continue strengthening across the projection period.
The government deficit is projected to reach 5.4 percent of GDP in 2025, remaining broadly stable until 2028 before increasing further, according to the bureau’s projections — a trajectory that, combined with otherwise encouraging employment figures, leaves Belgian policymakers facing the classic dilemma of a country that is growing and creating jobs, while its public finances continue moving in the wrong direction regardless. The bureau’s own concluding remarks note that absent a meaningful shift in fiscal policy direction, this deficit trajectory will continue placing Belgium under close scrutiny from European fiscal governance bodies well before the end of the current projection window in 2030.
