PUBLISHED May 28, 2026
According to “Normalt stämningsläge men mer pessimistiska hushåll — Konjunkturbarometern april 2026”, published by Konjunkturinstitutet on 29 April 2026, the overall Barometer Indicator fell marginally in April to 99.0, from 99.6 in March — a reading that continues to signal a normal level of economic sentiment in Sweden. The headline stability, however, conceals a widening divergence between the business sector, which is broadly holding at or above average, and households, whose confidence indicator dropped sharply by 3.7 points to just 91.5 — well below the long-run normal of 100.
The survey covers approximately the full range of Swedish economic activity, with manufacturing weighted at 40 percent of the Barometer Indicator, services at 30 percent, households at 20 percent, and retail trade and construction sharing the remaining 10 percent. That weighting structure means the household deterioration is partially masked in the headline — but its scale and the breadth of its underlying components make it one of the most significant signals in the April report.
Sweden’s manufacturing sector enters the second quarter of 2026 with a confidence indicator of exactly 100.0 — precisely at its long-run average, and essentially unchanged from March. The sector’s apparent stability is real, but the data underneath it is sending conflicting messages.
On the demand side, order intake from the domestic market has surged to a reading of 22 — far above its historical mean of 5 — and exportorder intake stands at 25 against a historical average of 10. Both domestic and foreign order expectations for the next three months remain elevated. Yet production volume over the past three months actually registered 0 — flat, against a long-run average of 13. Manufacturing firms are seeing strong orders but not yet converting them into output growth at the expected rate.
The most striking data point is pricing. Domestic sales price plans leaped to a net balance of 35 — the largest single-month increase recorded since the series began in 1996. Export price plans also rose sharply to 19. Firms are clearly anticipating that the energy cost pressures filtering through from the Middle East conflict will necessitate price increases, particularly in the domestic market. The breadth and scale of this repricing intention is remarkable, and represents a potential inflationary signal that extends well beyond the direct energy component.
Capacity utilization stands at 83 percent, slightly below the historical average of 84 percent, while labor shortages — particularly among technical specialists — remain somewhat above normal levels. Profitability assessments, however, remain clearly below average, suggesting that firms are absorbing cost pressures without yet being able to pass them through fully.
Sweden’s construction sector presents one of the most striking contradictions in the April barometer. The confidence indicator eased by 2.4 points to 100.5 — normal territory — and the sub-component for order book satisfaction remains negative, with firms reporting dissatisfaction above average levels. Housing builders in particular are running below normal sentiment.
Yet the forward-looking components of the construction survey are almost startling in their optimism. The outlook for the building market on a one-year horizon stands at a net balance of 47 — more than four times the historical average of 10, and a reading categorized as “much stronger than normal.” Order book expectations for the coming three months sit at 35, against a long-run average of 6. Building activity expectations are well above normal. Tender price expectations are rising.
What this tells us is that Sweden’s construction industry believes the current softness is temporary and that a meaningful recovery is imminent — most likely driven by the combination of low vacancy rates, still-low interest rates by historical standards, and a pipeline of approved building projects that have not yet broken ground. Whether that confidence is validated will depend significantly on how financing conditions and household demand develop over the second half of 2026.
Sweden’s retail sector returned to above-normal sentiment in April, with the confidence indicator rebounding to 107.8 after a sharp March dip. The recovery reflects strengthening sales expectations and improved inventory assessments. But the April retail data must be read with one important caveat: Sweden reduced VAT on food products on 1 April 2026, which directly affected pricing dynamics in the grocery segment.
The survey data shows that grocery retailers are still more likely to be cutting prices than raising them — a consequence of the VAT reduction flowing through to shelf prices. Non-food retailers, by contrast, have been raising prices above the historical norm. Price plans across retail as a whole surged to a net balance of 27 — well above the historical average of 21 — suggesting that the underlying inflationary pressure in the sector is significant, even accounting for the grocery tax effect.
Employment in retail recovered in April after two months of decline, with firms reporting above-average headcount increases. The six-month sales outlook remains firmly above normal at 49. For a sector that was under significant pressure through most of 2024 and 2025, these readings represent genuine improvement.
According to “Normalt stämningsläge men mer pessimistiska hushåll — Konjunkturbarometern april 2026”, published by Konjunkturinstitutet on 29 April 2026, the overall Barometer Indicator fell marginally in April to 99.0, from 99.6 in March — a reading that continues to signal a normal level of economic sentiment in Sweden. The headline stability, however, conceals a widening divergence between the business sector, which is broadly holding at or above average, and households, whose confidence indicator dropped sharply by 3.7 points to just 91.5 — well below the long-run normal of 100.
The survey covers approximately the full range of Swedish economic activity, with manufacturing weighted at 40 percent of the Barometer Indicator, services at 30 percent, households at 20 percent, and retail trade and construction sharing the remaining 10 percent. That weighting structure means the household deterioration is partially masked in the headline — but its scale and the breadth of its underlying components make it one of the most significant signals in the April report.
Sweden’s manufacturing sector enters the second quarter of 2026 with a confidence indicator of exactly 100.0 — precisely at its long-run average, and essentially unchanged from March. The sector’s apparent stability is real, but the data underneath it is sending conflicting messages.
On the demand side, order intake from the domestic market has surged to a reading of 22 — far above its historical mean of 5 — and exportorder intake stands at 25 against a historical average of 10. Both domestic and foreign order expectations for the next three months remain elevated. Yet production volume over the past three months actually registered 0 — flat, against a long-run average of 13. Manufacturing firms are seeing strong orders but not yet converting them into output growth at the expected rate.
The most striking data point is pricing. Domestic sales price plans leaped to a net balance of 35 — the largest single-month increase recorded since the series began in 1996. Export price plans also rose sharply to 19. Firms are clearly anticipating that the energy cost pressures filtering through from the Middle East conflict will necessitate price increases, particularly in the domestic market. The breadth and scale of this repricing intention is remarkable, and represents a potential inflationary signal that extends well beyond the direct energy component.
Capacity utilization stands at 83 percent, slightly below the historical average of 84 percent, while labor shortages — particularly among technical specialists — remain somewhat above normal levels. Profitability assessments, however, remain clearly below average, suggesting that firms are absorbing cost pressures without yet being able to pass them through fully.
Sweden’s construction sector presents one of the most striking contradictions in the April barometer. The confidence indicator eased by 2.4 points to 100.5 — normal territory — and the sub-component for order book satisfaction remains negative, with firms reporting dissatisfaction above average levels. Housing builders in particular are running below normal sentiment.
Yet the forward-looking components of the construction survey are almost startling in their optimism. The outlook for the building market on a one-year horizon stands at a net balance of 47 — more than four times the historical average of 10, and a reading categorized as “much stronger than normal.” Order book expectations for the coming three months sit at 35, against a long-run average of 6. Building activity expectations are well above normal. Tender price expectations are rising.
What this tells us is that Sweden’s construction industry believes the current softness is temporary and that a meaningful recovery is imminent — most likely driven by the combination of low vacancy rates, still-low interest rates by historical standards, and a pipeline of approved building projects that have not yet broken ground. Whether that confidence is validated will depend significantly on how financing conditions and household demand develop over the second half of 2026.
Sweden’s retail sector returned to above-normal sentiment in April, with the confidence indicator rebounding to 107.8 after a sharp March dip. The recovery reflects strengthening sales expectations and improved inventory assessments. But the April retail data must be read with one important caveat: Sweden reduced VAT on food products on 1 April 2026, which directly affected pricing dynamics in the grocery segment.
The survey data shows that grocery retailers are still more likely to be cutting prices than raising them — a consequence of the VAT reduction flowing through to shelf prices. Non-food retailers, by contrast, have been raising prices above the historical norm. Price plans across retail as a whole surged to a net balance of 27 — well above the historical average of 21 — suggesting that the underlying inflationary pressure in the sector is significant, even accounting for the grocery tax effect.
Employment in retail recovered in April after two months of decline, with firms reporting above-average headcount increases. The six-month sales outlook remains firmly above normal at 49. For a sector that was under significant pressure through most of 2024 and 2025, these readings represent genuine improvement.
Sweden’s services sector maintained its broadly normal sentiment in April, with the confidence indicator edging up marginally to 101.7. The improvement was driven by firms reporting a more positive assessment of their own business development over the past three months — a signal of underlying operational resilience that the headline figure somewhat undersells.
The current volume of outstanding commissions remains below normal, however, and profitability assessments — unchanged since January — are clearly worse than the historical average. Staffing agency companies, land transport operators, and leasing businesses are among the sectors where dissatisfaction with profitability is most pronounced. The services sector is operating, but it is not thriving. Labor shortages, which had been acute in recent years, have eased considerably — only about one in five service firms now reports a personnel deficit, below the long-run norm.
The most analytically rich and socially significant section of the April barometer is its household data — and within that, the extraordinary divergence between male and female consumer sentiment. The confidence indicator for men plunged by 6.2 points to 88.1, categorized as “much weaker than normal.” The indicator for women rose slightly by 1.1 points to 91.6. The gap between the two monthly changes — 7.3 points — is the largest recorded since the series began in 1996.
The Konjunkturinstitutet does not speculate on the causes of this divergence, but the data itself offers some clues. Households’ expectations for the Swedish economy one year ahead fell sharply, as did personal income expectations and willingness to make major purchases. The macro assessment — how Swedes evaluate the national economy relative to twelve months ago — dropped by the equivalent of 1.3 index points to -33, a reading categorized as below normal.
What makes the overall household picture particularly striking is the compression of income-group differences. Over the past two years, lower-income households have been consistently gloomier than higher-income households. That gap has now essentially closed — not because lower-income households have become more optimistic, but because higher-income households have become considerably less so. In April, all income groups show roughly similarly weak sentiment. The pessimism, in other words, has moved up the income distribution.
By housing tenure, renters remain more pessimistic than owners or mortgage-holders — consistent with the pattern of the past two years, and reflecting both the greater exposure of renters to energy costs and their weaker position in the household balance sheet.
Two final data points from the April barometer deserve particular attention. First, business inflation expectations rose sharply — the one-year inflation expectation among firms jumped from 1.7 percent in January to 2.6 percent in April, a significant upward shift that mirrors the repricing intentions already visible in the sector-by-sector price plan data.
Second, households’ own inflation expectations rose to 7.5 percent for the coming twelve months — already high, and likely reflecting a perception of inflation that is considerably more severe than what official statistics will actually record. This wedge between perceived and measured inflation is a persistent feature of Swedish consumer surveys and represents a genuine risk to consumption — because households who believe prices are rising faster than they actually are will save more and spend less than warranted by objective conditions.
Taken together, the April barometer paints a Sweden that is economically functional but psychologically divided. Its businesses are navigating a difficult external environment with something close to normal composure. Its households — particularly its male population and its higher earners — are reassessing their economic expectations in ways that, if sustained, could translate into real consumption restraint in the months ahead. The divergence between these two Swedens is the defining economic story of spring 2026.
Sweden’s services sector maintained its broadly normal sentiment in April, with the confidence indicator edging up marginally to 101.7. The improvement was driven by firms reporting a more positive assessment of their own business development over the past three months — a signal of underlying operational resilience that the headline figure somewhat undersells.
The current volume of outstanding commissions remains below normal, however, and profitability assessments — unchanged since January — are clearly worse than the historical average. Staffing agency companies, land transport operators, and leasing businesses are among the sectors where dissatisfaction with profitability is most pronounced. The services sector is operating, but it is not thriving. Labor shortages, which had been acute in recent years, have eased considerably — only about one in five service firms now reports a personnel deficit, below the long-run norm.
The most analytically rich and socially significant section of the April barometer is its household data — and within that, the extraordinary divergence between male and female consumer sentiment. The confidence indicator for men plunged by 6.2 points to 88.1, categorized as “much weaker than normal.” The indicator for women rose slightly by 1.1 points to 91.6. The gap between the two monthly changes — 7.3 points — is the largest recorded since the series began in 1996.
The Konjunkturinstitutet does not speculate on the causes of this divergence, but the data itself offers some clues. Households’ expectations for the Swedish economy one year ahead fell sharply, as did personal income expectations and willingness to make major purchases. The macro assessment — how Swedes evaluate the national economy relative to twelve months ago — dropped by the equivalent of 1.3 index points to -33, a reading categorized as below normal.
What makes the overall household picture particularly striking is the compression of income-group differences. Over the past two years, lower-income households have been consistently gloomier than higher-income households. That gap has now essentially closed — not because lower-income households have become more optimistic, but because higher-income households have become considerably less so. In April, all income groups show roughly similarly weak sentiment. The pessimism, in other words, has moved up the income distribution.
By housing tenure, renters remain more pessimistic than owners or mortgage-holders — consistent with the pattern of the past two years, and reflecting both the greater exposure of renters to energy costs and their weaker position in the household balance sheet.
Two final data points from the April barometer deserve particular attention. First, business inflation expectations rose sharply — the one-year inflation expectation among firms jumped from 1.7 percent in January to 2.6 percent in April, a significant upward shift that mirrors the repricing intentions already visible in the sector-by-sector price plan data.
Second, households’ own inflation expectations rose to 7.5 percent for the coming twelve months — already high, and likely reflecting a perception of inflation that is considerably more severe than what official statistics will actually record. This wedge between perceived and measured inflation is a persistent feature of Swedish consumer surveys and represents a genuine risk to consumption — because households who believe prices are rising faster than they actually are will save more and spend less than warranted by objective conditions.
Taken together, the April barometer paints a Sweden that is economically functional but psychologically divided. Its businesses are navigating a difficult external environment with something close to normal composure. Its households — particularly its male population and its higher earners — are reassessing their economic expectations in ways that, if sustained, could translate into real consumption restraint in the months ahead. The divergence between these two Swedens is the defining economic story of spring 2026.
