PUBLISHED May 28, 2026
The Framework: Three Scenarios, One Economy
According to “Sectorprognoses maart 2026: oorlog in het Midden-Oosten raakt alle sectoren”, published by Rabobank RaboResearch on 13 March 2026, the Dutch economy grew by 1.9 percent in 2025 and was expected to grow by 1.4 to 1.5 percent in 2026 before the Iran War altered the calculus. The sector forecasts are built around three scenarios that differ in the duration and severity of the conflict’s impact on energy markets.
The baseline scenario assumes a short conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz temporarily and partially closed. Oil reaches an average of $86 per barrel in March and April before declining; gas reaches €52 per MWh. Dutch inflation (HICP) rises to 2.6 percent in 2026. GDP growth comes in at 1.4 percent — one tenth of a percentage point lower than the pre-war expectation.
Scenario 2 assumes complete closure of the Strait, driving oil to $110 per barrel and gas to €100 per MWh. These prices stay elevated for up to a year. Inflation rises to 3.1 percent. Growth falls to 1.2 percent.
Scenario 3 assumes destruction of critical Saudi and Qatari energy infrastructure, leaving the world with structurally less oil and gas for years. Oil reaches $150 per barrel, gas approaches €125 per MWh. Inflation spikes to 4.4 percent in 2026. Growth collapses to 0.6 percent. In the most extreme version of this scenario, the average petrol price exceeds €3 per litre and a new household energy contract temporarily costs over €400 per month.
Industry: Up to Two Billion Euros at Stake
Manufacturing is the sector most directly exposed to higher energy prices because of its concentration of gas-intensive production: the chemical industry, base metals, and building materials all consume large volumes of natural gas. In the baseline scenario, industrial gross value added grows by 1.6 percent in 2026 — already lower than the 1.8 percent that Rabobank had projected before the Iran War began. In scenario 2, growth falls to 1.4 percent. In scenario 3, it drops to just 0.6 percent.
The cumulative cost of the worst scenario is striking. Compared with the pre-war baseline projection, the Dutch industrial sector stands to lose nearly €2 billion in gross value added over two years in scenario 3. This is not an abstract modelling exercise: it represents real production decisions, real employment consequences, and real pressure on the margins of companies whose input costs are rising while their customers are becoming more cautious.
Within industry, Rabobank identifies a significant divergence between energy-intensive and high-technology segments. Energy-intensive sectors — chemicals, base metals — face structural production reductions and persistent margin pressure regardless of scenario. High-technology industry, by contrast, is expected to grow in 2026, driven by recovery in the semiconductor cycle, with benefits flowing to machine builders, electronics manufacturers, and metal products firms.
Construction: Housing Bounces Back, Civil Engineering Slows
The construction sector in 2025 delivered a remarkable surprise: residential building and utility construction grew by 6.9 percent and civil engineering by 10.9 percent — significantly above Rabobank’s prior forecasts. A backlog of previously approved and recently started projects drove this acceleration.
The 2026 picture is more differentiated. Residential construction continues to benefit from the project backlog, with housing starts recovering strongly. Utility construction, however, is expected to decline again, as commercial building activity remains subdued. Civil engineering cannot fully sustain 2025’s exceptional pace, despite adequate budgets for bridge, viaduct, sluice, and infrastructure maintenance — and despite an expected contribution from defence-related construction contracts.
The Iran War impact on construction runs through materials, energy, and transport costs. In the baseline, the sector still grows at 0.9 percent. In scenario 2, growth falls to 0.6 percent; in scenario 3 it essentially stalls at 0.1 percent. Installation companies providing energy transition services — heat pumps, electrical systems, building insulation — are identified as a consistent growth segment across all scenarios, reflecting the structural demand for energy efficiency investment that persists regardless of geopolitical conditions.
The transport sector is caught between two pressures simultaneously. On the logistics side, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted container shipping that was only beginning to return to the Suez route after earlier Red Sea tensions. Major shipping companies have now suspended those plans. Longer sailing times, schedule disruptions, and capacity shortages are pushing container prices upward. Gulf airports including those in the UAE and Qatar are temporarily unavailable or severely disrupted, affecting air freight.
On the road transport side, higher fuel prices directly increase operating costs in a sector already characterised by thin margins. The 2026 introduction of a new lorry road charge (vrachtwagenheffing) adds further cost pressure for domestic operators. The combination forces transport companies to pass costs on to customers — where contract structures allow — but the timing mismatch between price increases and contractual pass-through mechanisms creates a working capital burden.
In the baseline, Rabobank expects transport gross value added to grow at 0.9 percent. In the worst scenario, that growth turns to a contraction of 0.1 percent. For a sector that is structurally important to the Dutch economy — the Netherlands is Europe’s primary logistics gateway — even flat growth represents a meaningful underperformance.
The transport sector is caught between two pressures simultaneously. On the logistics side, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted container shipping that was only beginning to return to the Suez route after earlier Red Sea tensions. Major shipping companies have now suspended those plans. Longer sailing times, schedule disruptions, and capacity shortages are pushing container prices upward. Gulf airports including those in the UAE and Qatar are temporarily unavailable or severely disrupted, affecting air freight.
On the road transport side, higher fuel prices directly increase operating costs in a sector already characterised by thin margins. The 2026 introduction of a new lorry road charge (vrachtwagenheffing) adds further cost pressure for domestic operators. The combination forces transport companies to pass costs on to customers — where contract structures allow — but the timing mismatch between price increases and contractual pass-through mechanisms creates a working capital burden.
In the baseline, Rabobank expects transport gross value added to grow at 0.9 percent. In the worst scenario, that growth turns to a contraction of 0.1 percent. For a sector that is structurally important to the Dutch economy — the Netherlands is Europe’s primary logistics gateway — even flat growth represents a meaningful underperformance.
Despite persistently negative consumer confidence, Dutch households have continued spending — a paradox that Rabobank acknowledges as an indicator of underlying domestic demand resilience. In 2026, wage growth of approximately 4 percent is expected to remain comfortably above baseline inflation, supporting household purchasing power. Pensioners at funds that have transitioned to the new pensions system will receive significantly higher payments from spring 2026, providing additional consumer spending support.
For non-food retail, this purchasing power improvement is expected to sustain growth across most sub-sectors. Furniture and home furnishings are continuing the positive trend from 2025, supported by housing market activity and normal replacement cycles in durable goods. Consumer electronics should benefit from demand pull ahead of the Winter Olympics and the Football World Cup. Online retail continues its structural expansion.
Wholesale trade faces more direct exposure to the conflict through higher transport costs and disrupted supply chains, but Rabobank expects positive growth in European and domestic markets to offset this. The energy commodity wholesale segment — classified under specialised wholesale — is paradoxically expected to record strong nominal turnover growth in 2026 precisely because oil and gas prices are elevated, followed by a sharp turnover decline in 2027 when the conflict resolves.
In the worst scenario, however, the purchasing power story reverses entirely. If inflation reaches 4.4 percent and wage growth lags, the real income gains of 2026 evaporate — and retail and hospitality face a consumer that is genuinely squeezed rather than merely cautious.
The Dutch hospitality sector enters 2026 facing a structural cost challenge that predates the Iran War entirely: the VAT rate on accommodation was raised from 9 to 21 percent on 1 January 2026, dramatically increasing the cost of hotel stays and holiday parks for consumers and reducing operators’ ability to maintain occupancy. Campgrounds are exempt from the change — creating an unusual competitive inversion in which the lower-price segment of the accommodation market has been handed a regulatory advantage over hotels.
Against this VAT backdrop, the Iran War adds energy cost pressure to a sector that CBS identifies as one of the four most energy-intensive business activities in the Netherlands, alongside chemicals, transport, and agriculture. The combination of fixed energy costs, rising labour costs, the VAT shock, and geopolitical uncertainty produces a sector that Rabobank projects will grow by just 0.3 percent in value added in 2026 in the baseline — essentially flat. In scenario 2, growth is zero. In scenario 3, there is a slight contraction of 0.3 percent.
The sector’s recovery depends almost entirely on a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, normalisation of energy prices, and the gradual adaptation of travellers and operators to the new VAT regime — a combination that is possible but requires favourable developments on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Information and communications technology is characterised by Rabobank as a growth engine across all scenarios — but one under pressure. In the baseline, the sector grows at 1.9 percent. In scenario 3, it decelerates to 1.3 percent as corporate investment decisions are deferred in response to geopolitical uncertainty. The IT sector’s specific challenge is that it depends heavily on corporate capital expenditure decisions, and uncertainty — even when it does not directly affect IT input costs — causes decision-makers to delay projects.
Specialised business services face a similar dynamic: demand is softening slightly, the labour market is easing as AI tools reduce the need for junior headcount, and the geopolitical environment adds uncertainty to investment planning. The security, landscaping, and cleaning sub-sectors within broader business services are identified as outliers — growing strongly, but constrained by labour shortages that affect 62 to 70 percent of companies in those segments.
Healthcare stands apart from every other sector in the analysis. Its growth is described as largely insulated from geopolitical developments — each escalation scenario costs the sector just 0.1 percentage point of growth. The dominant variables for Dutch healthcare in 2026 and beyond are the policy choices of the new Jetten cabinet: a planned increase in the personal deductible, cuts to elderly care from 2030, a shift toward preventive medicine, and reforms to how health insurers procure care.
Despite persistently negative consumer confidence, Dutch households have continued spending — a paradox that Rabobank acknowledges as an indicator of underlying domestic demand resilience. In 2026, wage growth of approximately 4 percent is expected to remain comfortably above baseline inflation, supporting household purchasing power. Pensioners at funds that have transitioned to the new pensions system will receive significantly higher payments from spring 2026, providing additional consumer spending support.
For non-food retail, this purchasing power improvement is expected to sustain growth across most sub-sectors. Furniture and home furnishings are continuing the positive trend from 2025, supported by housing market activity and normal replacement cycles in durable goods. Consumer electronics should benefit from demand pull ahead of the Winter Olympics and the Football World Cup. Online retail continues its structural expansion.
Wholesale trade faces more direct exposure to the conflict through higher transport costs and disrupted supply chains, but Rabobank expects positive growth in European and domestic markets to offset this. The energy commodity wholesale segment — classified under specialised wholesale — is paradoxically expected to record strong nominal turnover growth in 2026 precisely because oil and gas prices are elevated, followed by a sharp turnover decline in 2027 when the conflict resolves.
In the worst scenario, however, the purchasing power story reverses entirely. If inflation reaches 4.4 percent and wage growth lags, the real income gains of 2026 evaporate — and retail and hospitality face a consumer that is genuinely squeezed rather than merely cautious.
The Dutch hospitality sector enters 2026 facing a structural cost challenge that predates the Iran War entirely: the VAT rate on accommodation was raised from 9 to 21 percent on 1 January 2026, dramatically increasing the cost of hotel stays and holiday parks for consumers and reducing operators’ ability to maintain occupancy. Campgrounds are exempt from the change — creating an unusual competitive inversion in which the lower-price segment of the accommodation market has been handed a regulatory advantage over hotels.
Against this VAT backdrop, the Iran War adds energy cost pressure to a sector that CBS identifies as one of the four most energy-intensive business activities in the Netherlands, alongside chemicals, transport, and agriculture. The combination of fixed energy costs, rising labour costs, the VAT shock, and geopolitical uncertainty produces a sector that Rabobank projects will grow by just 0.3 percent in value added in 2026 in the baseline — essentially flat. In scenario 2, growth is zero. In scenario 3, there is a slight contraction of 0.3 percent.
The sector’s recovery depends almost entirely on a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, normalisation of energy prices, and the gradual adaptation of travellers and operators to the new VAT regime — a combination that is possible but requires favourable developments on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Information and communications technology is characterised by Rabobank as a growth engine across all scenarios — but one under pressure. In the baseline, the sector grows at 1.9 percent. In scenario 3, it decelerates to 1.3 percent as corporate investment decisions are deferred in response to geopolitical uncertainty. The IT sector’s specific challenge is that it depends heavily on corporate capital expenditure decisions, and uncertainty — even when it does not directly affect IT input costs — causes decision-makers to delay projects.
Specialised business services face a similar dynamic: demand is softening slightly, the labour market is easing as AI tools reduce the need for junior headcount, and the geopolitical environment adds uncertainty to investment planning. The security, landscaping, and cleaning sub-sectors within broader business services are identified as outliers — growing strongly, but constrained by labour shortages that affect 62 to 70 percent of companies in those segments.
Healthcare stands apart from every other sector in the analysis. Its growth is described as largely insulated from geopolitical developments — each escalation scenario costs the sector just 0.1 percentage point of growth. The dominant variables for Dutch healthcare in 2026 and beyond are the policy choices of the new Jetten cabinet: a planned increase in the personal deductible, cuts to elderly care from 2030, a shift toward preventive medicine, and reforms to how health insurers procure care.
