PUBLISHED May 28, 2026
The Overall Picture: -14.2, Still Sinking
According to “Ondernemersvertrouwen blijft zwak en daalt licht in april”, published by the Nationale Bank van België on 24 April 2026, the general synthetic confidence curve fell a further 0.5 points in April to reach -14.2, following near-stabilisation in March. The smoothed trend curve — which filters out monthly volatility and reflects the underlying direction of movement — declined by 1.7 points, continuing its downward trajectory.
The April reading places the overall indicator well below the long-run average of -5.8 calculated over the period from 2006 to 2025. It is not at the extreme lows recorded during the global financial crisis or the pandemic period, but it is meaningfully below the midpoint of the historical range, and the directional signal from the smoothed curve offers no reassurance that a recovery is imminent. Belgium’s business community has not yet found a reason to become more optimistic.
Manufacturing: The One Bright Spot
The sole positive reading in the April survey comes from manufacturing, which recorded a second consecutive improvement — rising from -16.1 in March to -14.4 in April, a gain of 1.7 points. This consecutive improvement is notable precisely because it is unusual in the current environment: most indicators across the Belgian economy have been moving in one direction only.
The improvement in manufacturing is driven primarily by inventories. Firms reported that their stock levels are now assessed as lower than normal for the season — a shift in the balance of +0.1 in April compared to +9.5 in March, reflecting a significant normalisation. When companies assess their inventories as below normal, they typically expect to increase production to rebuild them, which provides a positive boost to confidence. This inventory effect is a mechanical rather than demand-driven improvement, which partly limits its informational value as a signal of genuine recovery.
The less encouraging note within manufacturing is the employment outlook, which deteriorated sharply — falling from -9.6 in March to -13.2 in April. Even as production expectations stabilised, manufacturing firms reported more pessimistic hiring intentions, suggesting that firms expect to manage any production uptick through existing capacity rather than new headcount. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing declined for the second consecutive quarter, from 76.9 percent in January to 76.1 percent in April — below the long-run average of 78.6 percent — which confirms that there is no pressure on production capacity of the kind that typically precedes investment or hiring.
Business Services: The Sharpest Monthly Drop
The most significant deterioration in April came from business services, where the confidence indicator fell by 5.3 points to -11.6 — the largest single-month decline across any sector in the survey. All sub-indicators worsened, with the outlook for own activity and the general market demand assessment falling most sharply: the activity outlook dropped from +1.6 in March to -5.0 in April, and the market demand outlook fell from -5.0 to -12.2.
These are meaningful numbers for a sector that encompasses professional services, consulting, financial intermediation, and a range of B2B activities that tend to lead the broader business cycle. When business service firms become pessimistic about their own activity and about market demand, it typically signals a pullback in corporate investment and outsourcing decisions more broadly. The April reading, if sustained, would suggest that Belgian businesses are beginning to cut back on discretionary professional spending — a sign that the uncertainty generated by the Middle East conflict and broader economic headwinds is translating into concrete operating decisions rather than remaining in the realm of sentiment.
Belgian construction firms have been reporting deteriorating conditions for three consecutive months. In April, the sector’s confidence indicator fell by 4.0 points to -15.7. The current order book assessment remained slightly above zero at -20.3, essentially unchanged from March — meaning firms still have work in the pipeline, but not growing. The real concern lies in the demand outlook: firms expect demand to decline sharply in the coming months, with the demand expectations indicator collapsing from -16.6 in March to -28.9 in April.
A reading of -28.9 on demand expectations is close to historical stress levels for the Belgian construction sector. It implies that a very large majority of construction firms expect their business volumes to fall rather than rise in the near term. Given the sector’s exposure to both residential development — which is sensitive to mortgage financing conditions and consumer confidence — and commercial and public investment — which is sensitive to corporate and government budget outlooks — this level of pessimism reflects a broad-based deterioration in the fundamental drivers of Belgian construction activity.
Belgian construction firms have been reporting deteriorating conditions for three consecutive months. In April, the sector’s confidence indicator fell by 4.0 points to -15.7. The current order book assessment remained slightly above zero at -20.3, essentially unchanged from March — meaning firms still have work in the pipeline, but not growing. The real concern lies in the demand outlook: firms expect demand to decline sharply in the coming months, with the demand expectations indicator collapsing from -16.6 in March to -28.9 in April.
A reading of -28.9 on demand expectations is close to historical stress levels for the Belgian construction sector. It implies that a very large majority of construction firms expect their business volumes to fall rather than rise in the near term. Given the sector’s exposure to both residential development — which is sensitive to mortgage financing conditions and consumer confidence — and commercial and public investment — which is sensitive to corporate and government budget outlooks — this level of pessimism reflects a broad-based deterioration in the fundamental drivers of Belgian construction activity.
Belgium’s retail sector has been oscillating for several months — a pattern that makes trend identification difficult. In April, the confidence indicator fell by 3.9 points to -14.8, with all sub-indicators deteriorating. The employment and demand outlook sub-components fell most sharply. The employment outlook dropped from -3.7 to -10.2, and the demand outlook fell from -13.5 to -16.6.
The price dynamics in retail deserve particular attention. Actual selling price growth stood at +16.1 in April, and price expectations for coming months registered +19.8 — among the highest readings in the current data series. This suggests that Belgian retailers are experiencing and anticipating elevated price pressures, which is consistent with the energy cost pass-through dynamics visible across the eurozone. When retailers face higher costs and expect to raise prices, but employment and demand outlooks are simultaneously deteriorating, it points toward a stagflationary squeeze: firms must pass on costs to survive margins, but doing so will further constrain the consumer spending they need to sustain volumes.
Perhaps the most important single number in the April report is the change in the smoothed (afgevlakte) general synthetic curve: -1.7 points. This smoothed indicator is designed to filter out monthly volatility and represent the underlying trend in Belgian business conditions. Its continued decline — and its cumulative direction over recent months — indicates that the deterioration in Belgian business confidence is not a series of temporary fluctuations but a genuine and sustained downward movement.
The smoothed curves for individual sectors confirm this picture. Manufacturing’s smoothed indicator fell by 1.1 points despite the raw improvement; business services fell by 0.4 points; construction fell by 0.3 points; and retail trade fell by 1.2 points. All four smoothed sector curves are pointing downward — which means that even manufacturing’s two months of raw improvement have not yet been sufficient to arrest the underlying deterioration in that sector’s trend.
Belgium’s April business confidence data sits comfortably within the broader pattern of European economic deterioration documented throughout this series of country reports. The mechanisms are familiar: energy cost increases following the Iran War conflict, softening external demand, rising uncertainty discouraging investment, and consumer caution limiting domestic spending. Belgium experiences all of these pressures.
What makes Belgium’s situation distinctive is the relative severity of the construction and business services deterioration — both sectors recording their weakest readings in the current cycle in April. Belgium’s construction sector has particular relevance to the country’s public finances: municipal and regional investment in infrastructure, housing, and public facilities is a significant driver of construction activity, and the fiscal pressures on Belgian public authorities are considerable. If public investment also begins to contract, the construction sector’s -28.9 demand expectations could prove not just a reflection of current uncertainty but a leading indicator of a more prolonged depression in building activity.
The one piece of conditional good news is that Belgium’s position within the eurozone provides the same partial buffer available to all members: monetary policy, fiscal frameworks, and single market access are shared. Belgium cannot cut its own interest rates or devalue its exchange rate, but it benefits from the ECB’s management of eurozone-wide inflation and from the demand stimulus generated by stronger eurozone members when they invest and consume. Whether that passive benefit will be sufficient to stabilise Belgian confidence — or whether domestic policy choices will need to do more — is the central question that the April barometer, in its steady downward drift, is pressing with increasing urgency.
Belgium’s retail sector has been oscillating for several months — a pattern that makes trend identification difficult. In April, the confidence indicator fell by 3.9 points to -14.8, with all sub-indicators deteriorating. The employment and demand outlook sub-components fell most sharply. The employment outlook dropped from -3.7 to -10.2, and the demand outlook fell from -13.5 to -16.6.
The price dynamics in retail deserve particular attention. Actual selling price growth stood at +16.1 in April, and price expectations for coming months registered +19.8 — among the highest readings in the current data series. This suggests that Belgian retailers are experiencing and anticipating elevated price pressures, which is consistent with the energy cost pass-through dynamics visible across the eurozone. When retailers face higher costs and expect to raise prices, but employment and demand outlooks are simultaneously deteriorating, it points toward a stagflationary squeeze: firms must pass on costs to survive margins, but doing so will further constrain the consumer spending they need to sustain volumes.
Perhaps the most important single number in the April report is the change in the smoothed (afgevlakte) general synthetic curve: -1.7 points. This smoothed indicator is designed to filter out monthly volatility and represent the underlying trend in Belgian business conditions. Its continued decline — and its cumulative direction over recent months — indicates that the deterioration in Belgian business confidence is not a series of temporary fluctuations but a genuine and sustained downward movement.
The smoothed curves for individual sectors confirm this picture. Manufacturing’s smoothed indicator fell by 1.1 points despite the raw improvement; business services fell by 0.4 points; construction fell by 0.3 points; and retail trade fell by 1.2 points. All four smoothed sector curves are pointing downward — which means that even manufacturing’s two months of raw improvement have not yet been sufficient to arrest the underlying deterioration in that sector’s trend.
Belgium’s April business confidence data sits comfortably within the broader pattern of European economic deterioration documented throughout this series of country reports. The mechanisms are familiar: energy cost increases following the Iran War conflict, softening external demand, rising uncertainty discouraging investment, and consumer caution limiting domestic spending. Belgium experiences all of these pressures.
What makes Belgium’s situation distinctive is the relative severity of the construction and business services deterioration — both sectors recording their weakest readings in the current cycle in April. Belgium’s construction sector has particular relevance to the country’s public finances: municipal and regional investment in infrastructure, housing, and public facilities is a significant driver of construction activity, and the fiscal pressures on Belgian public authorities are considerable. If public investment also begins to contract, the construction sector’s -28.9 demand expectations could prove not just a reflection of current uncertainty but a leading indicator of a more prolonged depression in building activity.
The one piece of conditional good news is that Belgium’s position within the eurozone provides the same partial buffer available to all members: monetary policy, fiscal frameworks, and single market access are shared. Belgium cannot cut its own interest rates or devalue its exchange rate, but it benefits from the ECB’s management of eurozone-wide inflation and from the demand stimulus generated by stronger eurozone members when they invest and consume. Whether that passive benefit will be sufficient to stabilise Belgian confidence — or whether domestic policy choices will need to do more — is the central question that the April barometer, in its steady downward drift, is pressing with increasing urgency.
