PUBLISHED January 21, 2026
According to “Economie blijft groeien, maar werkloosheid loopt ook op” from Accountant.nl, the Dutch economy is projected to maintain growth over the next few years. Rabobank economists estimate a 1.7 % expansion in 2025 compared with 2024. They also predict steady growth of about 1.3 % annually in both 2026 and 2027. Household spending is rising as consumers enjoy greater purchasing power. Government expenditures are increasing, partly due to an aging population. Defense investments are another key area of public spending. Together, these factors underpin the resilient economic outlook.
Despite this positive trajectory, the Dutch labor market is undergoing change. Unemployment is expected to increase gradually in the coming years. In 2025, the jobless rate averaged about 3.9 % of the workforce. Economists forecast this will rise to around 4.1 % in 2026. By 2027, unemployment could reach an estimated 4.3 %. Importantly, this rise is not primarily due to widespread job losses. Rather, employment growth is trailing behind the expanding labor force.
Another trend seen in the labor market is the falling number of job vacancies. Fewer openings, especially in the private sector, mean new entrants face stiffer competition. At the same time, fewer unemployed workers are finding jobs quickly. In this context, the pace of job creation is slowing relative to labor supply growth. Higher wages are nevertheless expected in the coming years. Inflation is projected to decline, easing pressure on household budgets. This combination could improve overall purchasing power despite slower job growth.
Rabobank’s economic outlook highlights the importance of consumer demand to sustained GDP growth. As wages rise and inflation gradually falls, households have more to spend on goods and services. This uptick in private consumption supports businesses across sectors from retail to services. In addition, government spending remains elevated, a reflection of demographic shifts. Healthcare expenditures are increasing as the population ages, requiring more public investment. Defense outlays are also rising, contributing to overall fiscal demand. These spending components collectively help sustain above-trend economic performance.
Rabobank’s economic outlook highlights the importance of consumer demand to sustained GDP growth. As wages rise and inflation gradually falls, households have more to spend on goods and services. This uptick in private consumption supports businesses across sectors from retail to services. In addition, government spending remains elevated, a reflection of demographic shifts. Healthcare expenditures are increasing as the population ages, requiring more public investment. Defense outlays are also rising, contributing to overall fiscal demand. These spending components collectively help sustain above-trend economic performance.
Inflation in the Netherlands is expected to decline gradually over the next few years.
After a period of elevated prices, consumer inflation should stabilize near moderate levels. Forecasts suggest a drop from just over 3 percent to around 2 percent by 2027. This easing is linked to lower energy costs, improved supply chains, and softer global demand. Slower price growth reduces pressure on household budgets and increases financial stability. At the same time, wages are projected to continue rising at a solid pace. Average pay growth is expected to exceed inflation, improving real incomes. This will likely support consumer spending on housing, services, and everyday goods. Stronger purchasing power could partially offset the negative effects of higher unemployment. As a result, domestic demand is expected to remain a key pillar of economic growth.
The Dutch economy is forecast to continue expanding at a moderate pace through 2027. Consumer spending and high government outlays will remain key growth drivers. However, unemployment is likely to increase modestly as the labor force grows faster than job creation. Fewer vacancies in certain sectors could constrain opportunities for jobseekers. At the same time, inflation is set to decline and wage growth should support household budgets. These dynamics suggest a mixed economic picture — growth alongside evolving labor market conditions. Policymakers and businesses will need to balance these trends to ensure broad-based prosperity.
Despite positive economic forecasts, pressure on the labor market is increasing.
The expected rise in unemployment is mainly due to structural factors rather than large-scale job losses. More people are entering the workforce than the number of new jobs being created. Companies are becoming more cautious about hiring, especially in the private sector. Vacancies in retail, manufacturing, and business services have declined noticeably. This makes it harder for graduates and jobseekers to find positions quickly. In addition, fewer unemployed workers are moving back into employment each month. Job searches are taking longer, particularly for older workers and those with outdated skills. These trends point to a gradual cooling of what was previously a very tight labor market. Overall, unemployment remains relatively low by historical standards, but the upward trend marks a clear shift. Without targeted retraining and labor-mobility measures, this development could persist in the coming years.
Inflation in the Netherlands is expected to decline gradually over the next few years.
After a period of elevated prices, consumer inflation should stabilize near moderate levels. Forecasts suggest a drop from just over 3 percent to around 2 percent by 2027. This easing is linked to lower energy costs, improved supply chains, and softer global demand. Slower price growth reduces pressure on household budgets and increases financial stability. At the same time, wages are projected to continue rising at a solid pace. Average pay growth is expected to exceed inflation, improving real incomes. This will likely support consumer spending on housing, services, and everyday goods. Stronger purchasing power could partially offset the negative effects of higher unemployment. As a result, domestic demand is expected to remain a key pillar of economic growth.
The Dutch economy is forecast to continue expanding at a moderate pace through 2027. Consumer spending and high government outlays will remain key growth drivers. However, unemployment is likely to increase modestly as the labor force grows faster than job creation. Fewer vacancies in certain sectors could constrain opportunities for jobseekers. At the same time, inflation is set to decline and wage growth should support household budgets. These dynamics suggest a mixed economic picture — growth alongside evolving labor market conditions. Policymakers and businesses will need to balance these trends to ensure broad-based prosperity.
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