PUBLISHED February 28, 2026
According to “Rabobank: Landbouw enige sector die gaat krimpen in 2026” published by BPNieuws, Dutch agriculture is expected to be the only major sector to shrink in 2026, marking a notable divergence from the broader economic outlook.
Rabobank forecasts that the real added value of the agricultural sector will fall by 3.2% in 2026, driven primarily by lower production in both livestock and arable farming.
The projection underscores mounting structural pressure in a sector that has already been navigating regulatory changes, cost volatility and shifting production dynamics.
Livestock Sector to See the Sharpest Impact
The bank expects the strongest contraction to occur in livestock farming.
Buy-out schemes and structural adjustments in the sector are projected to have a more visible effect next year, leading to an estimated 5% decline across the livestock complex.
This reflects ongoing policy and market pressures that are gradually reducing production capacity. The outlook suggests that the livestock segment will remain the primary drag on overall agricultural performance.
Crop production is likewise projected to fall. Rabobank anticipates lower output in key arable segments, including sugar beets (-6.6%), potatoes (-1%) and cereals (-2%), partly due to adjustments in cropping plans and a return to more average yields per hectare.
While these declines are less dramatic than in livestock, together they reinforce the expectation of a broad-based sector slowdown.
Crop production is likewise projected to fall. Rabobank anticipates lower output in key arable segments, including sugar beets (-6.6%), potatoes (-1%) and cereals (-2%), partly due to adjustments in cropping plans and a return to more average yields per hectare.
While these declines are less dramatic than in livestock, together they reinforce the expectation of a broad-based sector slowdown.
Beyond volume changes, price dynamics may amplify the pressure. Rabobank expects the sector’s added value to decline by more than 9% in nominal terms in 2026, mainly because prices for meat, milk and eggs are projected to fall.
By contrast, prices in plant-based segments are expected to rise roughly in line with inflation, offering only limited offset to the broader decline.
Rabobank’s methodology emphasises real (constant-price) developments to isolate volume trends, noting that agricultural markets are highly volatile. The bank stresses that the outlook reflects structural adjustments rather than a short-term market fluctuation.
Importantly, the forecast also points beyond 2026. The bank expects further contraction in 2027, again largely linked to developments in livestock farming.
Taken together, the Rabobank outlook suggests Dutch agriculture is entering a period of structural tightening even as other parts of the economy stabilise. Production adjustments, policy impacts and softer animal-product prices are combining to create a challenging operating environment.
For agribusiness suppliers and food-chain players, the implication is clear: growth opportunities may shift away from primary production toward efficiency, value-added processing and alternative agricultural models.
Bottom line: Dutch agriculture is projected to contract in 2026, driven mainly by livestock reductions and weaker crop output. While not a sudden collapse, the forecast signals a structural cooling that could extend into 2027.
Beyond volume changes, price dynamics may amplify the pressure. Rabobank expects the sector’s added value to decline by more than 9% in nominal terms in 2026, mainly because prices for meat, milk and eggs are projected to fall.
By contrast, prices in plant-based segments are expected to rise roughly in line with inflation, offering only limited offset to the broader decline.
Rabobank’s methodology emphasises real (constant-price) developments to isolate volume trends, noting that agricultural markets are highly volatile. The bank stresses that the outlook reflects structural adjustments rather than a short-term market fluctuation.
Importantly, the forecast also points beyond 2026. The bank expects further contraction in 2027, again largely linked to developments in livestock farming.
Taken together, the Rabobank outlook suggests Dutch agriculture is entering a period of structural tightening even as other parts of the economy stabilise. Production adjustments, policy impacts and softer animal-product prices are combining to create a challenging operating environment.
For agribusiness suppliers and food-chain players, the implication is clear: growth opportunities may shift away from primary production toward efficiency, value-added processing and alternative agricultural models.
Bottom line: Dutch agriculture is projected to contract in 2026, driven mainly by livestock reductions and weaker crop output. While not a sudden collapse, the forecast signals a structural cooling that could extend into 2027.
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