PUBLISHED April 28, 2026
A Gloomy Start to the Year
According to “Lähtötilanne vuoteen 2026: talouden nollakasvu ja suurtyöttömyys” published by Teollisuusliitto, Finland entered 2026 in a weaker position than many had expected. Hopes that the economy would strengthen and employment would improve at least modestly did not materialize. Instead, the weak development seen in the previous year continued into the new year.
Consumer Confidence Held Back Growth
The report states that Finland’s 2025 economic performance remained subdued, with weak consumer confidence playing a central role. Rising unemployment, growing insecurity in working life, and weaker social safety nets were cited as factors that weighed on spending and overall growth.
Real Wages Offer Some Hope
Despite the difficult backdrop, household purchasing power is expected to improve in 2026. Based on current inflation forecasts, real wages are projected to rise by more than 2% this year. The report also noted that real wages had already increased by 3.5% in the final quarter of 2025, suggesting some relief for households after a prolonged squeeze.
Teollisuusliitto said industrial production and exports are expected to grow in 2026. The report highlighted that wage increases have been well balanced, allowing purchasing power to improve while maintaining Finland’s competitiveness. This could support manufacturing activity if external demand remains stable.
Teollisuusliitto said industrial production and exports are expected to grow in 2026. The report highlighted that wage increases have been well balanced, allowing purchasing power to improve while maintaining Finland’s competitiveness. This could support manufacturing activity if external demand remains stable.
The outlook remains vulnerable to international developments. The report warned that a prolonged war involving Iran could weaken economic prospects by pushing up oil and gas prices. Germany was identified as especially sensitive to higher gas costs, which matters because Finland’s export expectations depend significantly on demand from the German economy.
One of the most serious concerns is the labor market. During the second half of 2025, Finland’s unemployment rate rose to exceptionally high levels. The unemployment trend for people aged 15–74 climbed from 10.0% in August to 10.7% in December, while January 2026 remained above 10%. Long-term unemployment also approached 140,000 people.
The report concludes that household consumption is key if Finland wants to improve the business cycle and restore growth. Rising purchasing power could help, but only if confidence returns and employment conditions stabilize. For now, Finland enters 2026 facing the difficult combination of zero growth and persistently high unemployment.
The outlook remains vulnerable to international developments. The report warned that a prolonged war involving Iran could weaken economic prospects by pushing up oil and gas prices. Germany was identified as especially sensitive to higher gas costs, which matters because Finland’s export expectations depend significantly on demand from the German economy.
One of the most serious concerns is the labor market. During the second half of 2025, Finland’s unemployment rate rose to exceptionally high levels. The unemployment trend for people aged 15–74 climbed from 10.0% in August to 10.7% in December, while January 2026 remained above 10%. Long-term unemployment also approached 140,000 people.
The report concludes that household consumption is key if Finland wants to improve the business cycle and restore growth. Rising purchasing power could help, but only if confidence returns and employment conditions stabilize. For now, Finland enters 2026 facing the difficult combination of zero growth and persistently high unemployment.
