PUBLISHED February 28, 2026
According to “Suomen talous kasvaa, mutta yksi asia laahaa perässä” published by Verkkouutiset, Finland’s economy is finally turning toward growth, but the recovery is expected to remain uneven as household consumption continues to lag behind.
Forecasts from OP Financial Group suggest that the Finnish economy will move into expansion during 2026 and 2027. Gross domestic product is projected to grow on average 1.5% over the two years, slightly below earlier expectations of 1.8%.
The downward revision reflects a more cautious view of how quickly domestic demand will recover.
Exports and Investments Provide Momentum
The recovery is not without solid foundations. According to OP’s chief economist Reijo Heiskanen, exports and investments are developing well and are expected to continue supporting growth in the coming years.
Export demand in particular is forecast to strengthen as economic activity in Northern Europe improves, potentially growing faster than global trade overall.
Improved cost competitiveness and a backlog of existing orders are also expected to support Finland’s export sector. However, the outlook is not risk-free, with rising trade barriers identified as a potential downside risk for the external sector.
Taken together, the export-investment engine appears to be functioning, giving Finland a credible path back to moderate growth.
The main weak spot in the outlook is private consumption. Household spending stagnated in 2025, remaining behind income growth as the savings rate increased. In practical terms, Finnish consumers have been choosing to save rather than spend — a pattern that is now shaping the pace of the broader recovery. Economists expect consumption to gradually strengthen in 2026–2027 as real disposable income rises. However, the rebound is likely to be slow. The forecast assumes only a modest decline in the savings rate as households adjust to higher interest rates and concerns about unemployment begin to ease.
This cautious consumer behaviour is the single biggest factor holding back a faster cyclical upswing.
The main weak spot in the outlook is private consumption. Household spending stagnated in 2025, remaining behind income growth as the savings rate increased. In practical terms, Finnish consumers have been choosing to save rather than spend — a pattern that is now shaping the pace of the broader recovery. Economists expect consumption to gradually strengthen in 2026–2027 as real disposable income rises. However, the rebound is likely to be slow. The forecast assumes only a modest decline in the savings rate as households adjust to higher interest rates and concerns about unemployment begin to ease.
This cautious consumer behaviour is the single biggest factor holding back a faster cyclical upswing.
One of the more striking structural observations in the report is the unusually high savings rate among Finnish households. It currently stands at roughly double the average level of recent decades, highlighting how defensive consumer behaviour has become.
While the baseline forecast assumes some normalisation, OP warns that uncertainty around the savings rate is higher than usual due to the large swings seen in recent years. There is also a possibility that the savings rate could remain permanently higher, partly because of population ageing.
If that happens, the short-term cyclical recovery would be weaker — although a higher savings level could support Finland’s long-term production potential.
The overall picture that emerges is one of asymmetric recovery. The external sector and investments are already showing momentum, while domestic consumption is only beginning to stabilise.
This pattern is typical for economies emerging from a period of high inflation and interest-rate shocks, where households tend to remain cautious longer than businesses. For Finland, it means the growth rebound is likely to be gradual rather than explosive.
For companies operating in the Finnish market, the implication is clear: export-oriented and investment-linked sectors are likely to see earlier improvement than consumer-dependent industries.
Looking ahead, Finland’s growth path in 2026–2027 will depend heavily on whether households begin to loosen their grip on savings. Rising real incomes and easing labour-market concerns should help, but economists remain cautious about the speed of the shift.
If consumption normalises as expected, the economy could move into a more balanced expansion phase. If households remain defensive, the recovery will continue to rely disproportionately on exports and investment.
Bottom line: Finland’s economy is returning to growth, supported by strong exports and improving investment. However, cautious consumers remain the key bottleneck — and the pace of the recovery will ultimately depend on when household spending truly revives.
One of the more striking structural observations in the report is the unusually high savings rate among Finnish households. It currently stands at roughly double the average level of recent decades, highlighting how defensive consumer behaviour has become.
While the baseline forecast assumes some normalisation, OP warns that uncertainty around the savings rate is higher than usual due to the large swings seen in recent years. There is also a possibility that the savings rate could remain permanently higher, partly because of population ageing.
If that happens, the short-term cyclical recovery would be weaker — although a higher savings level could support Finland’s long-term production potential.
The overall picture that emerges is one of asymmetric recovery. The external sector and investments are already showing momentum, while domestic consumption is only beginning to stabilise.
This pattern is typical for economies emerging from a period of high inflation and interest-rate shocks, where households tend to remain cautious longer than businesses. For Finland, it means the growth rebound is likely to be gradual rather than explosive.
For companies operating in the Finnish market, the implication is clear: export-oriented and investment-linked sectors are likely to see earlier improvement than consumer-dependent industries.
Looking ahead, Finland’s growth path in 2026–2027 will depend heavily on whether households begin to loosen their grip on savings. Rising real incomes and easing labour-market concerns should help, but economists remain cautious about the speed of the shift.
If consumption normalises as expected, the economy could move into a more balanced expansion phase. If households remain defensive, the recovery will continue to rely disproportionately on exports and investment.
Bottom line: Finland’s economy is returning to growth, supported by strong exports and improving investment. However, cautious consumers remain the key bottleneck — and the pace of the recovery will ultimately depend on when household spending truly revives.
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