PUBLISHED February 28, 2026
According to “Aufkeimender Optimismus in der Schweizer Wirtschaft” published by the KOF Institute at ETH Zurich, sentiment in the Swiss private sector improved noticeably at the beginning of 2026, signalling a cautiously brighter economic mood after a prolonged soft patch.
KOF’s business tendency surveys show that both the assessment of the current business situation and expectations for the coming months have turned more positive. The improvement is described as broad-based, suggesting that the Swiss economy is entering the year with strengthening confidence across much of the corporate landscape.
Manufacturing Drives the Turnaround
The upswing in sentiment is being led primarily by the manufacturing sector. According to KOF, the balance of positive versus negative assessments of business conditions in industry has moved back into positive territory for the first time since spring 2023. After an extended weak phase, this shift marks a notable turning point for one of Switzerland’s key export engines.
The improvement is particularly visible in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, where firms report significantly better business conditions.
The surveys also indicate that companies with strong exposure to EU and US markets are benefiting from firmer demand expectations, helping to lift overall industrial confidence.
Klaus Abberger, head of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, notes that some industries had previously been under pressure for an extended period, making the current broad improvement especially noteworthy.
Beyond manufacturing, sentiment has also improved in several major service segments. KOF reports better business assessments in financial and insurance services, wholesale trade, hospitality and construction. This points to a recovery that is gradually spreading across the economy rather than remaining confined to a single sector.
Retail trade is also showing improvement, although the gain there is described as more modest. At the same time, the picture is not uniformly positive. The business situation in other services has remained largely stable, while project engineering firms — including architects and engineering offices — reported a slight cooling.
This uneven pattern suggests that Switzerland’s economic recovery is broadening but still at an early and somewhat fragile stage.
Beyond manufacturing, sentiment has also improved in several major service segments. KOF reports better business assessments in financial and insurance services, wholesale trade, hospitality and construction. This points to a recovery that is gradually spreading across the economy rather than remaining confined to a single sector.
Retail trade is also showing improvement, although the gain there is described as more modest. At the same time, the picture is not uniformly positive. The business situation in other services has remained largely stable, while project engineering firms — including architects and engineering offices — reported a slight cooling.
This uneven pattern suggests that Switzerland’s economic recovery is broadening but still at an early and somewhat fragile stage.
Part of the improved outlook is linked to developments in trade policy. According to KOF, the prospect of tariff reductions and their entry into force in November has provided a noticeable boost to demand expectations among surveyed firms.
The more positive demand outlook is also reflected in employment plans. Companies are gradually becoming more confident about staffing needs in the months ahead, reinforcing the view that the improvement in sentiment is gaining traction.
Despite the overall brightening in mood, KOF highlights a continued weak spot in the economy. New orders in commercial construction remain subdued, indicating that parts of the building sector are still feeling the effects of the earlier downturn.
This divergence underscores a key feature of the current cycle: business sentiment is improving faster than hard activity indicators in some segments, particularly in construction-related areas.
Taken together, the latest KOF survey points to emerging optimism in the Swiss economy at the start of 2026. The improvement is broad, industry is leading the upswing and service sectors are gradually following.
However, the recovery is not yet fully entrenched. The mixed signals from construction and the still-uneven sectoral picture suggest that Switzerland is in the early phase of a confidence-led rebound rather than a full economic upswing.
Bottom line: Swiss businesses have started 2026 with renewed confidence. The mood is clearly improving across much of the economy, but the recovery remains gradual and uneven, calling for cautious optimism rather than premature celebration.
Part of the improved outlook is linked to developments in trade policy. According to KOF, the prospect of tariff reductions and their entry into force in November has provided a noticeable boost to demand expectations among surveyed firms.
The more positive demand outlook is also reflected in employment plans. Companies are gradually becoming more confident about staffing needs in the months ahead, reinforcing the view that the improvement in sentiment is gaining traction.
Despite the overall brightening in mood, KOF highlights a continued weak spot in the economy. New orders in commercial construction remain subdued, indicating that parts of the building sector are still feeling the effects of the earlier downturn.
This divergence underscores a key feature of the current cycle: business sentiment is improving faster than hard activity indicators in some segments, particularly in construction-related areas.
Taken together, the latest KOF survey points to emerging optimism in the Swiss economy at the start of 2026. The improvement is broad, industry is leading the upswing and service sectors are gradually following.
However, the recovery is not yet fully entrenched. The mixed signals from construction and the still-uneven sectoral picture suggest that Switzerland is in the early phase of a confidence-led rebound rather than a full economic upswing.
Bottom line: Swiss businesses have started 2026 with renewed confidence. The mood is clearly improving across much of the economy, but the recovery remains gradual and uneven, calling for cautious optimism rather than premature celebration.
Reform PRODUCTS & SERVICES Group
Szentendrei út 87.
1033 Budapest
Hungary