PUBLISHED January 21, 2026
According to “DNB: economie dit jaar opvallend gegroeid, grotere groei zelfs mogelijk” from NOS.nl, new data from De Nederlandsche Bank suggest the Dutch economy has outperformed earlier expectations in 2025. Despite headwinds from international trade tensions and geopolitical instability, the economy did not stagnate. Instead, growth this year is significantly stronger than previously projected. Earlier in the year, the forecast had anticipated only around 1 % growth for 2025. However, updated projections now place economic expansion at approximately 1.7 % for the year. This marks a substantial upgrade from initial forecasts. In fact, output growth this year is higher than the 1.1 % recorded in the previous year.
The revised outlook comes from the DNB’s autumn economic projections. For 2026, DNB anticipates slower but still positive growth of about 1.2 %. Growth is forecast to ease further to around 1.1 % in 2027. These estimates contrast sharply with spring predictions when a mild expansion — or even stagnation — was feared. According to economists at the central bank, Dutch businesses have adapted more effectively to global uncertainty. Firms accelerated trade activity ahead of tariff increases, benefiting the open Dutch economy. DNB President Olaf Sleijpen described this as an “adrenaline boost” for the economy.
Looking forward, the outlook could improve even more if policy barriers are addressed. DNB points to bottlenecks such as energy infrastructure constraints and nitrogen regulation challenges. If a new cabinet swiftly tackles these issues, investment and consumer confidence could climb. In this scenario, growth in 2026 might reach around 1.6 %, above current baseline forecasts. This optimistic path depends on effective policy action, the bank notes. However, lingering uncertainties remain around fiscal policy and economic risks. Nonetheless, the central bank emphasizes the economy’s resilience in the face of adversity.
The most striking element of DNB’s updated projections is the unexpectedly strong growth this year. Earlier forecasts had estimated a modest economic expansion of around 1 % for 2025. New figures indicate that Dutch economic output will be about 1.7 % larger by year-end. This improvement surpasses not only spring estimates but also last year’s 1.1 % increase. The revision reflects stronger performance across trade and domestic demand. Despite global trade frictions and geopolitical tensions, exporters maintained robust activity. The central bank attributes part of the resilience to businesses front-loading activity ahead of tariff increases, giving output a boost.
The most striking element of DNB’s updated projections is the unexpectedly strong growth this year. Earlier forecasts had estimated a modest economic expansion of around 1 % for 2025. New figures indicate that Dutch economic output will be about 1.7 % larger by year-end. This improvement surpasses not only spring estimates but also last year’s 1.1 % increase. The revision reflects stronger performance across trade and domestic demand. Despite global trade frictions and geopolitical tensions, exporters maintained robust activity. The central bank attributes part of the resilience to businesses front-loading activity ahead of tariff increases, giving output a boost.
De Nederlandsche Bank expects the economy to continue expanding after this year’s strong performance. Growth is forecast at around 1.2 percent in 2026 and about 1.1 percent in 2027, indicating a stable but moderate trajectory. These projections assume that no major new global shocks occur. At the same time, DNB emphasizes that growth could be stronger if structural barriers are removed. The limited capacity of the electricity grid is currently restricting business expansion and new investments. Strict nitrogen regulations are also delaying construction and industrial projects. If a new government addresses these issues quickly, business confidence could improve significantly. Higher investment in infrastructure, housing, and energy systems would likely follow. In such a scenario, growth in 2026 could reach as high as 1.6 percent. This highlights how strongly future economic performance will depend on policy decisions made in the near term.
Inflation is expected to decline gradually over the next two years, though it will remain above the ECB’s long-term target for some time. After around 3 percent in 2025, price growth should ease in 2026 and 2027. Lower energy costs and more stable supply chains are key factors behind this trend. Despite this improvement, many households still face high living costs, especially for housing and food. Nevertheless, consumer spending has remained resilient. This is largely due to strong wage growth. In several sectors, labor shortages and new wage agreements are pushing salaries higher. As wages rise faster than prices, real incomes are improving. Stronger purchasing power helps sustain spending on goods and services, supporting overall economic activity. For now, this balance between easing inflation and rising wages remains a central pillar of economic stability.
The Dutch economy has surprised on the upside in 2025, growing more than early forecasts suggested. Although global trade tensions and geopolitical challenges persist, domestic activity has held firm. DNB’s updated projections paint a picture of ongoing, moderate growth through 2027. Structural policy actions — particularly on energy and environmental regulations — could further strengthen the outlook. Price growth is anticipated to cool, while wages maintain relative strength, supporting household spending. Still, inflation may remain above target and policymakers need to balance fiscal discipline with investment. Overall, the Netherlands’ economy has shown notable resilience and adaptability this year.
De Nederlandsche Bank expects the economy to continue expanding after this year’s strong performance. Growth is forecast at around 1.2 percent in 2026 and about 1.1 percent in 2027, indicating a stable but moderate trajectory. These projections assume that no major new global shocks occur. At the same time, DNB emphasizes that growth could be stronger if structural barriers are removed. The limited capacity of the electricity grid is currently restricting business expansion and new investments. Strict nitrogen regulations are also delaying construction and industrial projects. If a new government addresses these issues quickly, business confidence could improve significantly. Higher investment in infrastructure, housing, and energy systems would likely follow. In such a scenario, growth in 2026 could reach as high as 1.6 percent. This highlights how strongly future economic performance will depend on policy decisions made in the near term.
Inflation is expected to decline gradually over the next two years, though it will remain above the ECB’s long-term target for some time. After around 3 percent in 2025, price growth should ease in 2026 and 2027. Lower energy costs and more stable supply chains are key factors behind this trend. Despite this improvement, many households still face high living costs, especially for housing and food. Nevertheless, consumer spending has remained resilient. This is largely due to strong wage growth. In several sectors, labor shortages and new wage agreements are pushing salaries higher. As wages rise faster than prices, real incomes are improving. Stronger purchasing power helps sustain spending on goods and services, supporting overall economic activity. For now, this balance between easing inflation and rising wages remains a central pillar of economic stability.
The Dutch economy has surprised on the upside in 2025, growing more than early forecasts suggested. Although global trade tensions and geopolitical challenges persist, domestic activity has held firm. DNB’s updated projections paint a picture of ongoing, moderate growth through 2027. Structural policy actions — particularly on energy and environmental regulations — could further strengthen the outlook. Price growth is anticipated to cool, while wages maintain relative strength, supporting household spending. Still, inflation may remain above target and policymakers need to balance fiscal discipline with investment. Overall, the Netherlands’ economy has shown notable resilience and adaptability this year.
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