PUBLISHED February 28, 2026
According to “Sverige i topp när ekonomin vänder” published by Dagens industri (press release), Sweden is heading into 2026 with strengthening growth prospects and is expected to outperform many comparable economies as the global cycle turns.
In Handelsbanken’s latest economic forecast cited in the release, Swedish GDP is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2026, up from 1.8% in 2025.
The bank’s economists describe the coming year as a clear recovery phase following several weaker years.
Growth Expected to Outpace Peers
A key message of the forecast is Sweden’s relative strength. Handelsbanken expects the Swedish economy to grow faster than many comparable countries as the international environment improves.
The analysis emphasises that Sweden typically shows larger cyclical swings than the euro area, but that the economy’s underlying fundamentals remain stronger than often perceived.
For businesses and investors, this implies that Sweden could move earlier and faster into the next upswing phase.
The expected rebound is closely linked to improving household purchasing power. The forecast points to rising real incomes during 2026, which should support private consumption and help drive overall economic momentum.
Stronger household finances are seen as a central pillar of the recovery. As purchasing power improves, consumption is expected to pick up, providing a broader domestic demand base for growth.
The expected rebound is closely linked to improving household purchasing power. The forecast points to rising real incomes during 2026, which should support private consumption and help drive overall economic momentum.
Stronger household finances are seen as a central pillar of the recovery. As purchasing power improves, consumption is expected to pick up, providing a broader domestic demand base for growth.
Beyond consumption, the outlook also highlights positive signals from the corporate side. Business investments are expected to develop favourably, adding another layer of support to the recovery.
At the same time, the Swedish krona is described as still undervalued but likely to strengthen as growth improves and financial markets normalise. A firmer currency would reflect increasing confidence in Sweden’s macroeconomic trajectory.
Despite the more optimistic baseline, the report does not ignore risks. Export-oriented companies may face continued uncertainty linked to global trade tensions, particularly potential tariff threats from the United States.
The Swedish economy’s strong international exposure means that external developments will remain an important swing factor even as domestic conditions improve.
Taken together, the Handelsbanken forecast presented in the DI release points to 2026 as a turning year for the Swedish economy. Growth is expected to accelerate, household finances are improving and investment momentum is strengthening.
However, the recovery is still dependent on the global environment and trade stability. Sweden’s typical cyclical sensitivity means the upswing could be strong — but also potentially volatile.
Bottom line: Sweden is entering 2026 with improving economic momentum and is expected to lead the recovery among comparable economies. If external risks remain contained, the country could move into a clearer growth phase over the coming year.
Beyond consumption, the outlook also highlights positive signals from the corporate side. Business investments are expected to develop favourably, adding another layer of support to the recovery.
At the same time, the Swedish krona is described as still undervalued but likely to strengthen as growth improves and financial markets normalise. A firmer currency would reflect increasing confidence in Sweden’s macroeconomic trajectory.
Despite the more optimistic baseline, the report does not ignore risks. Export-oriented companies may face continued uncertainty linked to global trade tensions, particularly potential tariff threats from the United States.
The Swedish economy’s strong international exposure means that external developments will remain an important swing factor even as domestic conditions improve.
Taken together, the Handelsbanken forecast presented in the DI release points to 2026 as a turning year for the Swedish economy. Growth is expected to accelerate, household finances are improving and investment momentum is strengthening.
However, the recovery is still dependent on the global environment and trade stability. Sweden’s typical cyclical sensitivity means the upswing could be strong — but also potentially volatile.
Bottom line: Sweden is entering 2026 with improving economic momentum and is expected to lead the recovery among comparable economies. If external risks remain contained, the country could move into a clearer growth phase over the coming year.
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